2018-06-01

【市场】丙烯酸市场有望持续回暖

[Market] Acrylic market is expected to continue to pick up

On May 28th, in view of the persistently high price level of raw materials, the leading company in the industry, Satellite Petrochemical, continued to raise the price of acrylic acid to 9300~9500 yuan. The price adjustment of leading enterprises will surely continue to produce a pulling effect on the acrylic acid market.

Acrylic acid prices have remained strong this year. Especially since entering May, the market price of acrylic acid has continued to rise. As of now, the actual transaction price in the East China market has increased by about 6.8% from the beginning of the month.

Industry analysts say "Affected by environmental factors, acrylic acid production enterprises are limited in operation, while downstream demand is strong, coupled with factors such as rising raw material prices, acrylic acid prices are rising, and it is expected that there will still be room for growth in the later period."

At present, the acrylic acid industry has entered an up cycle, which is a typical industry affected by the production cycle. The previous round of capacity expansion has ended. This year, there is less new capacity. Only Jiangsu Sanmu 160,000 tons/year and Shandong Noel 80,000 tons/year. The device was put into production. These capacity growth is lower than the market demand.

In addition, subject to the impact of the operating rate of acrylic acid manufacturers, especially from the end of May to July, the domestic major acrylic acid production enterprises entered the maintenance period, nearly 900,000 tons of production capacity will be repaired at different times. For example, in mid-May, Shenyang Paraffin Chemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down for maintenance. At the end of May, there will be two companies in the industry to stop maintenance. At the same time, the installation of 220,000 tons/year of Jiangsu Jurong Xiangshui plant was stopped due to environmental factors, and the installation along the Yangtze River Basin was also affected to some extent. As the operating rate declines, the reduction in supply will inevitably affect the price of acrylic acid.

From the perspective of raw material propylene, prices continue to rise. According to Zhuo Chuang information analysis data, on May 28, the price of propylene in East China market was 8300-8400 yuan, which was about 200 yuan higher than the price of May 2 (8100-8200 yuan).

It is understood that in addition to the downstream product acrylic acid, the price of propylene is also affected by the demand for downstream derivatives such as polypropylene powder, butanol and propylene oxide. Since May, due to the influence of downstream products, polypropylene powder has a small profit margin and a stable support for the price of propylene. However, the profit margin of butanol and propylene oxide is good, and there is a strong demand for propylene. In turn, driven by the rapid growth of downstream products, global propylene consumption has increased significantly.

On the other hand, propylene is affected by the upstream crude oil market, for example, the price surged by 3% on May 10. In the face of cost, the price of propylene continues to support.

In addition, the downstream climate is good and the demand for acrylic acid is increasing.

Benefiting from the rapid growth of downstream products such as waterborne coatings and adhesives, the demand for acrylic acid and esters is expected to be better than expected.

In particular, the downstream butyl acrylate is eye-catching. Since May, the price of butyl ester has continued to rise, and the price of the East China market has increased by 15.7%. Its price has risen from 9,330 yuan on May 2 to the current 10,800 yuan. The company's operating rate is positive, increasing the demand for acrylic acid and further boosting the market.

"BA's negative demand on the demand side is more expressed through market sentiment. There is no obvious sharp decline in the demand side; the supply side benefits will be continuously implemented, the cost side support will not be changed, and the follow-up may still climb. On the whole, the market's butyl acrylate industry is more favorable than bearish, and it is estimated that the market outlook is still upward." Zhuo Chuang Information Acrylic analyst Gao Wenchao said.

From the perspective of foreign demand, with the rapid growth of demand in the acrylic acid market, the demand for domestic acrylic acid is relatively strong due to the overseas production capacity accounting for 63%, overseas demand accounting for 77%, and overseas production capacity being less.

Transferred from China Chemical Industry News